Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

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beamreach
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Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by beamreach »

Would love the community's help improving and discussing this Google spreadsheet of R2AK full race participants (2015 and 2016) --

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1670736602

It suggests that as of March, 2016, the # of full race teams registered for 2016 is at ~2/3 the 2015 total of 40. Impressively, 3 times as many women have signed up this year compared to 2015. There's also a notable shift away from two-person teams and catamarans.

Comment away, or request access if you'd like to edit. I hope we can collectively add more detail about the crews, the boats, the human powered propulsion systems, and some quantitative analysis of performance. No one except Ted has discussed analysis of the raw tracker data -- which is still available here: http://searunners.net/data/

Cheers,
Scott in Seattle
Team Sea Runners, 2015
Scott Veirs, Seattle, WA, USA
Wharram Tiki 21' -- http://econscience.org/tiki/
Wharram Hitia 17' -- http://searunners.net
scott at searunners.net
JollyRoger
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by JollyRoger »

Scott, One thought is that most folks just hold onto their money as long as possible before paying. I have heard there are many more crews approved but since we do not see them until they are paid there may be many more. Even after april 15th the deadline for paying is even later, April 30th. So final numbers in May? Enjoy your stats, Roger
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beamreach
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by beamreach »

Could be, Roger. As of today (Mar 23) with 23 days til ap deadline, we have 32 full race registrants -- 80% of 2015. We're down to 22% women.

Thanks to Katy Stewart of Team Onism who added some details today about their boat and crew!
Scott Veirs, Seattle, WA, USA
Wharram Tiki 21' -- http://econscience.org/tiki/
Wharram Hitia 17' -- http://searunners.net
scott at searunners.net
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beamreach
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by beamreach »

Some stats of May 1 (including Team Tritium)

2015
2016
2016 as % of 2015

# of teams registered for full race
40
35
88%

# of crew registered for full race
92
98
107%

# of females registered for full race
06
18
300%

Mean crew size of registered teams
2.3
2.8
122%

Same number of 2016 solo teams as in 2015 now (8). 2x # of teams with >3 crew members.

I wonder if Jake and Dan have enough registrations in the queue to get to 55-ish teams -- which Jake mentioned in a recent interview (I think)...
Scott Veirs, Seattle, WA, USA
Wharram Tiki 21' -- http://econscience.org/tiki/
Wharram Hitia 17' -- http://searunners.net
scott at searunners.net
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beamreach
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by beamreach »

With Uncruise added this morning we have:

# of teams registered for full race
40
36
90%

Pretty sure I heard Jake announce there were 44 full-Race teams in the queue, so

# of crew registered for full race
92
101
110%

The Tritium crew helped push the average 2016 full Race crew size to:
2.81 (120% of 2015)
Scott Veirs, Seattle, WA, USA
Wharram Tiki 21' -- http://econscience.org/tiki/
Wharram Hitia 17' -- http://searunners.net
scott at searunners.net
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Zero to 200
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by Zero to 200 »

I am unsure as to the purpose for compiling and posting these numbers. Is there some sort of insight to be gained or prediction to be divined out of these percentages?
Dirk Visser 166
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by Dirk Visser 166 »

Hi 0-200,
Provocative inquiry!

"The tale of the tape" .
Quantification.
Measurement.
Trends.
Parameters.
Characterization.
Influences.
Standard Deviation.
Randomization.
Regression.
Causation.
Variables.
Relationships
Curiosity.
Improvement.
Innovation.
Control.
Power.
Satisfaction.
and many more...
We can't help it, it's a key part of how we think!
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Re: Statistics, analysis, results (2015 vs 2016)

Post by beamreach »

And then there were 40! The 3-person team from CA on the Etchells 22 that finished last year has brought the full-race tally to 40 -- the total number of full-race teams last year. That means Jake has only 4 more full-race bios up his sleeve. Will Larry be one of them?!

Zero to 200 -- You could certainly use the Google spreadsheet to make predictions about which team(s) may finish or win the R2AK 2016. As a scientist, I like to base such predictions on data -- like the displacement of a boat design, the top sailing speed achieved by a design, or the number of crew. The spreadsheet is an attempt to gather such data not only to consider the upcoming full-race fleet, but also to monitor the nature of the Race to Alaska itself.

Google spreadsheet --

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1670736602

Will the 2016 R2AK be bigger than last year? Will it attract only multi-hulls because of Elsie Piddock's success, or will it continue to involve a wide range of boat designs? How are the demographics of the teams changing over time?

Provocative, inquiring minds want to know!
Scott Veirs, Seattle, WA, USA
Wharram Tiki 21' -- http://econscience.org/tiki/
Wharram Hitia 17' -- http://searunners.net
scott at searunners.net
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